Will power supply prices go down?

We will not tell you, over one to six months or over any other period. We built that answer, tested it against 1,252 past decisions, and it was wrong more often than a coin toss.

what we publishNo forecast

the horizon asked aboutone to six months

shop prices we hold0 of 10

evidence current to26 July 2026

Retail pricenot publishedWhy

A shop's price is the shop's data, and showing it needs that shop's permission. No shop has approved a price feed for this site: Rakuten Product Catalog technical approval, and the separate Newegg advertiser-feed approval, neither of which has been supplied for this property. Rather than copy prices we have no right to publish, we left them out and built the parts of the job that do not need them.

Every source we use, limit or refuse, each with the reason.

The working

The five things that answer rests on

Each one is a question you would reasonably ask before trusting anybody on this subject.

1. What is actually measured today?

Category price index, not the price of a part

Other electronic component manufacturing (PPI)

177.486index level, June 2026

Match to this categoryweak

Months held114

Months missing, left missing0

Against its own 12-month average+2.3%

January 2017June 2026

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, public domain, PCU334419334419, read 2 August 2026.

Month by month

That is a US government index for a whole category of goods, which we are free to keep and calculate from. It is not the price of a power supply model, and it must not be read as one: a category can move while the exact part you want does not, and the other way round. The published match rating for this series against power supply is weak, and it stays on the panel rather than the index being quietly treated as exact.

2. What is not measured?

0 of 10shop prices held for one exact part

A real timing answer needs the same exact part priced over and over, from a source we are allowed to keep. We hold none, because no shop has approved a feed for this site yet. Nothing on this page is loading or broken; the record simply does not exist, and it cannot be filled in backwards once it does. That is the honest difference between this page and a chart built from prices someone copied without permission.

3. Why not just call it anyway?

60.4%of our own wait calls were wrong at three months

We wrote the buy-or-wait rule and tested it against 1,252 past decisions across 11 index series, with no hindsight: every decision used only what had been published before that date. At three months, 29 of 48 wait signals were followed by a higher index. At six months, 74.5% were. A rule that is wrong more often than a coin toss is worse than useless, because people would act on it, so it is switched off in code and a test keeps it off.

The full method, every horizon, and the caveat we hold against our own result.

4. What would change this page?

Three specific thresholds, all of which have to be met: at least 10 usable prices for one exact power supply model, gathered across at least 14 days, covering at least 60% of the offers we would expect to find. Any one of them failing keeps this page exactly as it is.

Note what all three passing would produce: a statement about where today's price sits against that part's own recent past. Still not a forecast. We would need a different and much higher bar before publishing one of those, and we may never clear it.

5. How complete would the data be?

Coverage is the share of the offers we would expect to find that a collection run actually matched. We report it as unavailable rather than as zero, because zero would suggest we ran a collection and found nothing. No collection has run: no source has given permission for one.

This matters more than it sounds. If a large shop drops out of a feed, the average price jumps and a naive tracker reports a rise that never happened. When collection does start, a run covering less than 60% of the comparison period suspends the answer rather than recalculating a direction from the smaller sample.

Index series kept for this category: 5. A series carrying a weak match rating is shown with that rating rather than quietly promoted. See every series mapped to power supplies.

In detail

What the evidence does say about power supplies

The retained evidence has no live retail PSU story and does not support a timing claim. The only two public manufacturing proxies are weak fits, and in the latest retained month they sat on opposite sides of their own recent averages.

What the weak proxies say

The BLS index for other electronic-component manufacturing was 177.486 in June 2026. It was 0.5% above May 2026, 2.3% above its trailing 12-month mean of 173.475, and 3.6% above June 2025. March through June 2026 are provisional. BLS series PCU334419334419, read from the retained file fetched 25 July 2026.

The index for all other miscellaneous electrical equipment and component manufacturing was 160.127 in June 2026. It was 0.1% below May 2026, 2.4% below its trailing 12-month mean of 164.143, and 3.4% below June 2025. March through June 2026 are provisional. BLS series PCU335999335999, read from the retained file fetched 25 July 2026.

One line is above its recent mean and edging higher. The other is below its recent mean and nearly flat. The correct summary is that the broad proxies disagree. There is no basis for turning their average into a PSU direction.

Why category fit is thin

Neither BLS series isolates desktop computer power supplies. They mix products with different materials, demand, certification, and distribution structures. They contain no manufacturer part number, wattage, platform, form factor, cable set, connector standard, efficiency tier, hardware revision, warranty, merchant, or retail dollar price. BLS definitions and source registry, reviewed 2026-07-25.

Those omitted fields are not cosmetic. A revised PSU sold under a familiar family name may use a different platform. A higher-wattage model or a new connector standard is not a like-for-like substitute for every build. Certification data can describe efficiency or safety properties, but it cannot supply the missing offer history. PSU product-identity methodology, published 2026-07-26.

What disagreement looked like in the retained history

PCU335999335999 was 166.428 in February 2026 and then 159.378 in March, a 4.2% decrease. Over the same months, PCU334419334419 was almost unchanged, moving from 173.216 in February to 173.219 in March. By June 2026, the first series was 160.127 while the second had reached 177.486. BLS PCU335999335999 and BLS PCU334419334419, retained monthly history read 25 July 2026.

That episode shows why one broad proxy cannot stand in for the category. A large move in one series was not confirmed by the other. The files also provide no evidence that retail PSU offers followed either line.

The condition to watch

For public manufacturing context, the current disagreement changes only when both BLS series move in the same direction for at least two successive monthly releases and later revisions preserve the sequence. The June 2026 baselines are 177.486 for PCU334419334419 and 160.127 for PCU335999335999. Check both official series; agreement in only one remains weak evidence for this category. BLS PCU334419334419 and BLS PCU335999335999, retained values read 25 July 2026.

The retail status changes only when the source registry lists a retention-cleared PSU offer source and a same-model, same-revision price record reaches at least 14 days, 10 usable price readings, and 60% coverage. Those published thresholds support a retrospective state. They do not create a forecast. Price-state methodology, published 2026-07-26.

Why we stop at the evidence

The candidate timing rule was backtested without lookahead over 1,252 observed series-months across 11 BLS series. At three months, 29 of 48 testable wait signals were contradicted, a 60.4% failure rate against a pre-declared 40% limit. The recommendation path is disabled in code. Backtest and release decision, run 2026-07-26.

The useful answer is that the PSU evidence is quiet and weak, with two proxies disagreeing. Two aligned BLS releases would change the public context. Only a retention-cleared, like-for-like retail record would change the PSU price state.

Where next